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Oct 23, 2011

Android Market to Overtake App Store in terms of Downloads by June 2012

It might be hard to imagine, but Apple's dominance of the mobile download space may be waning. Per VentureBeat, App Store analyst firm Xyologic predicts that be June 2012, Android devices will surpass iOS devices in the number of apps downloaded on a monthly basis.

Currently, Apple's iOS App Store is the biggest force in the mobile market-- by a comfortable margin. In August, the App Store saw more than 1.45 billion apps downloaded for its iPhone, iPod Touch, and iPad devices. That's more than double the number reported for Google's Android platform, which boasted a healthy 640 million downloads.

Analysts Predict Android Downloads To Surpass iOS Downloads ByJune 2012

So why does Xyologic see the Android overtaking Apple's platform? "Apple continues to grow at exponential rates, but Android is growing at hyper-exponential rates[emphasis added]," explained Xyologic co-founder Matthaus Krzykowski to VentureBeat. "In the coming months, we’ll see a number of countries where Android becomes No. 1."

Xyologic sees the Android continuing to grow faster than the iOS, with Apple losing more and more of their share every month. Xyologic also predicts that Android's total number of apps downloaded will surpass the iOS downloads by mid-2013 (with over 84 billion downloads for each platform) and that the number of apps available for the Android will eclipse the number of apps available for the iOS by mid next year (current totals stand at ~466,000 for Apple's iOS, and ~289,000 for Google's Android).

Of course, these are predictions, not facts. Why Xyologic's methodology seems sound, anyone in the tech industry will tell you that the market could change dramatically in a matter of months, let alone weeks. If Apple or Google produce hardware that shakes up the industry, the market shares of the corresponding platforms will rise and fall accordingly. Google's acquiring of Motorola Mobility may accelerate the shift faster than Xyologic predicts, for example, or Apple's new iPhone 4S could hasten a move back towards Apple. We don't know. So in short: a lot can happen between now and next June.

This could be true given the fact that Android is catching up pretty fast in countries like India where only the rich can buy iPhones due to the huge price difference between the two platforms.

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